North Melbourne v Sydney
Saturday, August 14 - 7:40pm AEST
Marvel Stadium 

With end of the home and away season almost here, North Melbourne will front up to the challenge of a strong, finals contending side for the third week in a row; a brilliant litmus test for the growth of our young side.

Coming into the clash off the back of two losses for the first time since the bye, North’s defeat to Richmond last week, although disappointing, contained a near impeccable first half performance.

Leading by 20 points at half-time, the Roos in the second half to allow Richmond to snatch the win, but the clash was full of positive signs against the reigning premiers.

Luke Davies-Uniacke was irresistible in the middle of the park, collecting 38 disposals at 82 per cent efficiency, while Jy Simpkin also impressed with 34 touches of his own.

Aaron Hall continued his strong form in the back half of the ground, also finishing with 38 touches. while moving the ball forward with a game-high 790 metres gained.

Sydney enters the clash off the back of a 29-point loss to St Kilda.

The Swans have been slow starters in recent weeks, going into the quarter-time break behind in each of the last four weeks, however they’ve come back to win three of those clashes.

Sydney coach John Longmire has promised a faster starting Swans’ side this week, saying he’s keen for his team to bring the pressure from the very first bounce.

Jordan Dawson impressed against the Saints, finishing with 21 disposals and 2 goals, while Luke Parker and Jake Lloyd finished with 30 disposals each.

Charlie Comben will debut for North, while Will Phillips also comes into the side. Tom Campbell (omitted) and Jack Mahony (shoulder) will miss out.

Braeden Campbell, Hayden McLean and Lewis Melican are all inclusions for the Swans, with Lance Franklin (managed) among the outs.

Last time we met:

Round 3, 2020

It’s been over a season and a half since North last lined up against the Swans, with the team in red coming out as narrow victors last time around.

Winning by 11 points, Sydney was pushed all the way, with a three goal to nil fourth quarter almost proving enough for North to take the win.

Jy Simpkin led all comers with 26 disposals in the midfield, also finishing with 8 clearances and a game-high 14 contested possessions, while Jed Anderson finished with 5 tackles.

Todd Goldstein was at his vintage best, dominating in the ruck with 36 hitouts, also finishing with 18 touches and a game-high 9 clearances.

Tom Papley finished with 2 goals for Sydney, while Isaac Heeney had 18 touches and a goal.

The matchup:

Todd Goldstein v Tom Hickey

With the likes of Lance Franklin and Ben Cunnington missing from this clash, all eyes turn to the ruck battle in the middle, with the ever-consistent Todd Goldstein taking on Tom Hickey, a veteran in career-best form.

Much like the last decade, the performances of Todd Goldstein have been crucial to the performances of the Kangaroos, with the big ruck helping lead this young group into the future.

Averaging 28.8 hitouts, 14.4 disposals and 3.4 clearances per game this season, ‘Goldy’ has also been spending time forward, hitting the scoreboard with 12 goals so far this season.

Having registered 30 or more hitouts in eight of his last ten games, including 53 against Brisbane in Round 14, opposition rucks are finding it just as difficult to get over the top of Goldstein as they ever have.

With Charlie Comben coming into the side ahead of more natural rucks Tom Campbell and Tristan Xerri, expect Goldstein to spend less time forward and more time in the middle of the ground doing what he does best, giving his midfield first use of the football.

An AFL journeyman, Sydney is the fourth club of Hickey’s career, and his first season at the Swans is proving to be the best of his professional life.

Hickey has played 18 games in 2021, and remains on track to play 20 games in a season for just the third time in 11 seasons at the top level.

Averaging 23.6 hitouts per game, Hickey’s real improvement in 2021 can be found in his ability to find and effectively use the football, averaging 16.4 disposals and 5 clearances per game this season, both well clear of any other season in his career.

Battles involving two in forms rucks are always an intriguing sight, and with both team’s midfields operating well at this late stage of the season, whoever gives their side best and first use of the ball could prove the difference.

The key men:

Curtis Taylor and Isaac Heeney

A defining feature of North’s forward line is the amount of pressure it puts on the opposition. Jack Mahony leads the forward group in intercepts per game (1.68) and the whole team in tackles inside 50 (1.26).

With Mahony absent from the side for this weekend’s clash though, the likes of fellow youngster Curtis Taylor need to step up and improve on already strong numbers.

Taylor currently ranks just behind Mahony in intercepts per game with 1.56, and is fourth for tackles inside 50 amongst North Melbourne players, with 0.81 per game.

These solid defensive numbers coupled with his increasing consistency in disposals and efficiency mean he could well be North’s pressure leader not just for this weekend’s clash, but beyond.

With Lance Franklin being rested before finals, a number of Sydney’s other forward targets will need to step up in the absence of their leading goal-kicker.

Often the secondary forward option behind Franklin, Heeney is a dangerous and explosive forward option in his own right, and has kicked 28 goals in 18 games, meaning he is on track for his career-best season in front of goal.

With 15.4 disposals, 5.7 marks and 1.9 tackles a game, Sydney’s number five has little trouble finding the football in dangerous positions, and enjoys putting the opposition under pressure.

With both sides missing players key to their forwards structure this weekend, it could well be the players that step up who turn the tide for their team.

The stat:

The key measure of any game of football is, of course, goals. Those who can convert most accurately are often worth their weight in gold.

Accuracy in front of goals is something that defines Nick Larkey’s ability as a key-forward, and heading into his 50th game this weekend, he has a career record of 77 goals and 26 behinds.

That means that over the course of his career, Larkey kicks just under 3 goals for every behind he kicks. For comparison, Drew Petrie averaged 1.6 goals per behind across his career, while Jarrad Waite averaged 1.58.

In 2021, ‘Souva’ currently sits 16th in the Coleman Medal race with 37 goals and 14 behinds for the season, at an average of 2.64 goals per behind, the most efficient return of anybody in the top 20 goal-kickers for the season.

Only six of the other 19 players in the top 20 average more than 2 goals per behind kicked this season, with Toby Greene the least efficient at 1.11 goals per behind.

Across his career, Larkey has only kicked more behinds than goals in five games, including a 1 goal, 3 behind return against Carlton.

The only time he’s kicked more behinds than goals in back to back games was Round 20 and 21 of 2019, so back him in to have another efficient showing in what is hopefully the first of many milestone games in royal blue and white.