As the NAB Challenge draws near, many are making predictions around which team will achieve the ultimate glory in 2014.
While every team is supposedly ‘flying’ in the pre-season, nobody really knows how they’ll perform until that first bounce in Round 1.
One measure however, is the raw statistics.
In the first of NMFC.com.au’s ‘List Analysis’ pieces, we look at the links between experience and ladder positions.
2013 NMFC
Average age: 23 years, 183 days (14th)
Games: 55.8 (14th)
2014 NMFC
Average age: 24 years, 179 days (4th)
Games: 75.1 (3rd)
Considered one of the up-and-coming sides, North has made a rapid rise in terms of its perceived development going from 14th in average age and games played in 2013 to 4th and 3rd respectively. It’s a remarkable turnaround but there are some simple facts which skew the numbers
One of those is Nick Dal Santo. At age 29, he brings 260 games of experience to the Roos, significantly bumping up the average across the board.
Robin Nahas, 26, has 83 matches to his name, while at 25 years, Joel Tippett is in every sense a mature-age recruit. The Roos welcoming just three 18-year-olds to the list.
Couple that with no retirements and the re-signings of key mature-aged players in Michael Firrito, 30, and Nathan Grima, 28, and you have the perfect storm in terms of inflated figures.
The rankings are also tilted by the actions of other clubs.
Take Collingwood for example: After letting go of the likes of Darren Jolly, Heath Shaw, Alan Didak and Dale Thomas, the Pies have gone from 5th to 13th, and 1st to 7th in age and games played.
In: 345 games of experience
Nick Dal Santo: age 29 (free agency)
Robin Nahas: age 26 (delisted free agent)
Luke McDonald: age 18 (National Draft father/son selection)
Trent Dumont: age 18 (National Draft)
Ben Brown: age 21 (National Draft)
Joel Tippett: age 25 (Rookie Draft)
Kayne Turner (Rookie Draft)
Out: 70 games of experience
Luke Delaney: age 24 (traded to St Kilda)
Ayden Kennedy: age 22 (delisted)
Ben Mabon: age 21 (delisted)
Will Sierakowski: age 23 (delisted)
Jordan Gysberts: age 22 (delisted)
Ben Speight: age 23 (delisted)
Cameron Richardson: age 25 (delisted)
History tells us:
Analysing the table below, you start to get an idea of how much of a difference experience makes.
| Team (avg. age) | 2013 | Rank | Ladder | 2014 | Rank |
| Adelaide | 23.73 | 10 | 11 | 24.2 | 7 |
| Brisbane | 23.69 | 12 | 12 | 23.84 | 14 |
| Carlton | 24.25 | 7 | 6 | 24.52 | 3 |
| Collingwood | 24.43 | 5 | 8 | 23.87 | 13 |
| Essendon | 23.99 | 9 | 9 | 23.97 | 9 |
| Fremantle | 24.01 | 8 | 2 | 24.90 | 1 |
| Geelong | 24.39 | 6 | 3 | 23.96 | 10 |
| Gold Coast | 22.66 | 17 | 14 | 23.02 | 17 |
| GWS | 21.47 | 18 | 18 | 21.90 | 18 |
| Hawthorn | 24.47 | 3 | 1 | 24.47 | 5 |
| Melbourne | 23.49 | 15 | 17 | 23.71 | 15 |
| North Melbourne | 23.50 | 14 | 10 | 24.49 | 4 |
| Port Adelaide | 23.40 | 16 | 5 | 23.34 | 16 |
| Richmond | 23.72 | 11 | 7 | 24.17 | 8 |
| St Kilda | 24.54 | 2 | 16 | 24.22 | 6 |
| Sydney | 24.86 | 1 | 4 | 24.78 | 2 |
| West Coast | 24.46 | 4 | 13 | 23.93 | 12 |
| Western Bulldogs | 23.52 | 13 | 15 | 23.93 | 11 |
| Team (avg. games) | 2013 | Rank | Ladder | 2014 | Rank |
| Adelaide | 56.7 | 13 | 11 | 62.38 | 13 |
| Brisbane | 63.6 | 8 | 12 | 65.03 | 11 |
| Carlton | 68.1 | 7 | 6 | 72.61 | 5 |
| Collingwood | 88.7 | 1 | 8 | 69.90 | 7 |
| Essendon | 62.7 | 10 | 9 | 68.00 | 9 |
| Fremantle | 62.3 | 11 | 2 | 79.80 | 2 |
| Geelong | 76.2 | 6 | 3 | 68.03 | 8 |
| Gold Coast | 42.5 | 17 | 14 | 49.85 | 17 |
| GWS | 27.5 | 18 | 18 | 34.15 | 18 |
| Hawthorn | 78.2 | 3 | 1 | 74.50 | 4 |
| Melbourne | 48.6 | 16 | 17 | 51.03 | 16 |
| North Melbourne | 55.8 | 14 | 10 | 75.13 | 3 |
| Port Adelaide | 52.9 | 15 | 5 | 59.23 | 15 |
| Richmond | 63.5 | 9 | 7 | 67.39 | 10 |
| St Kilda | 77.1 | 5 | 16 | 64.65 | 12 |
| Sydney | 85.8 | 2 | 4 | 81.47 | 1 |
| West Coast | 77.8 | 4 | 13 | 70.10 | 6 |
| Western Bulldogs | 58.8 | 12 | 15 | 60.88 | 14 |
Barring some obvious outliers (Port Adelaide, which performed well above expectations with a young list, and St Kilda in a re-build, there’s a pattern of the more experienced, seasoned campaigners, ending in the top half of the table.
Greater Western Sydney and Melbourne are at the opposite end of the spectrum, but are in it for the long run.
The Hawks, ranked third in age and games played, were the eventual premiers while Fremantle defied the trend slightly, finishing runner-up with the 9th oldest list and 11th most experienced.
It’s perhaps the starting 22 for both teams that says the most. Compare the grand final lineups to that of North Melbourne in Round 23 and the difference is clear.
| Team | Total career games | Average |
| Hawthorn | 3069 | 139.5 |
| Fremantle | 2528 | 114.9 |
| North (Round 23) | 1985 | 90 |
Six months later, North has another elite player at its disposal in Dal Santo. At 29, he’s got plenty of quality football in him.
You’d expect him to slot straight into the team, while Scott Thompson will be eager to get back.
Take out the departing Luke Delaney and Will Sierakowski from the 22 and the Kangaroos look an experienced bunch.
The average age of the starting 22 goes up to 105 games, before considering the possible return of Scott McMahon (117 games).
Experience aside, anyone would be silly to think the addition of one proven star can make a premiership side.
So why all the hype? Perhaps it’s the fact that North’s emerging youngsters have another year under their belts and are only going to continue to improve.
The likes of Jack Ziebell, Ben Cunnington and Ryan Bastinac have played close to 100 games now, while Aaron Black, Aaron Mullett and Sam Gibson are nearing 50.
For too long Brent Harvey, Daniel Wells and Drew Petrie were relied upon to win games; now there’s a new regime and North’s youth are stepping up.
Will it be the formula for success? Time will tell, but the Kangaroos’ have certainly got people excited and for good reason.
