North Melbourne and Essendon have identical 3-3 records as they prepare to square off at Etihad Stadium.
Both sides had high expectations coming into 2015; the loser of Friday night’s clash will find itself falling off the pace of the top four, potentially two games behind depending on results.
Teams
North Melbourne
B: Lachlan Hansen, Scott Thompson, Michael Firrito
HB: Shaun Atley, Robbie Tarrant, Sam Wright
C: Shaun Higgins, Jack Ziebell, Ben Jacobs
HF: Brent Harvey, Jarrad Waite, Robbie Nahas
F: Lindsay Thomas, Drew Petrie, Ben Brown
Fol: Todd Goldstein, Ben Cunnington, Andrew Swallow
Int: Ryan Bastinac, Luke McDonald, Jamie Macmillan, Sam Gibson
Emer: Trent Dumont, Mason Wood, Kayne Turner
In: Jamie Macmillan
Out: Mason Wood (rested)
Essendon
B: M Hurley, D Fletcher, M Baguley
HB: M Gleeson, C Hooker, M Hibberd
C: D Heppell, J Watson, C Dempsey
HF: K Langford, J Carlisle, T Colyer
F: J Merrett, P Ambrose, J Daniher
Fol: T Bellchambers, B Stanton, B Goddard
Int: J Ashby, B Howlett, J Melksham, Z Merrett
Emer: J Gwilt, S McKernan, O Fantasia
In: J Ashby, K Langford, D Fletcher
Out: J Gwilt, D Zaharakis, W Hams
A revenge game?
Friday’s match marks the first time the two sides have met since 2014’s memorable Elimination Final that North Melbourne won by 12 points. Unsurprisingly, Essendon midfielder Brent Stanton admitted the Bombers would be out to rectify the result.
"It's in the back of most of the players' mind. It hasn't been spoken about in the team meeting but I certainly think that the players will be driving to resurrect that."
North has already met one of the teams it knocked out in last year’s final series. It travelled to Geelong in Round 4 and won away from home.
While a conventional narrative would point to the vanquished side getting its win back, the rematches in 2015 have been dead even so far. The four games (Hawthorn-Geelong, Fremantle-Port Adelaide, Geelong-North Melbourne and Port Adelaide-Hawthorn) have been evenly split at two apiece.
North will complete its first meetings with opponents from the 2014 finals when it welcomes Sydney to Etihad Stadium in Round 11.
Stat corner – inside 50 entries
North Melbourne’s entries inside its forward 50 shape as the most critical part of Friday night.
Through six rounds, the Kangaroos have comfortably been the best side in the competition at converting inside 50’s to scoring shots, even despite their 3-3 record. However, they’ll come up against a Bombers’ outfit that ranks second in the AFL in defending attacking entries.
At the other end of the ground, North had struggled in the first five rounds to defend in the same area. Brad Scott’s team may have come good at the right time though, with a much improved effort against the Tigers – conceding just 74 points.
While Essendon has statistically been almost elite in defending inside 50’s, it has faced big problems when going forward. The Bombers rank 17th for converting inside 50’s to scoring shots so far in 2015.
Interstate trips and short breaks
North and Essendon both started preparations for Round 7 with a flight back home from their respective interstate encounters.
While the Kangaroos had a short trip back from Hobart and were back at home on Saturday evening, the Bombers had the much longer trek from Perth after losing to Fremantle at Domain Stadium.
Until GWS’ victory over Hawthorn, no side had won the week after travelling to Perth. The way the Giants finished much stronger in the final term will likely give the Bombers confidence if the match hangs in the balance late.
Both sides won the week after their first interstate trip of 2015; North defeated Brisbane while Essendon got the better of Hawthorn in a nail biter at the MCG.
Winning the contest
Much has been made of North supposed inability to stand up to the contest after Hawthorn won by 60 points a fortnight ago at Etihad Stadium.
However, what the commentary has concealed is the fact that the Kangaroos are a very good side at winning the contested ball, and it is an advantage they hold over the Bombers in 2015.
Looking at the basic contested possession numbers would put the Kangaroos in 15th place, and it wouldn’t accurately reflect how they have fared in relation to their opponents. As an example:
- Team A loses contested possession 100-90
- Team B wins contested possession 60-40
Team B has had 30 less contested possessions than Team A, but it was clearly more valuable in the context of their own match. This is why the differential is a more useful resource to utilise when discussing a side’s output.
In applying this to North, it now ranks sixth – a far more accurate representation. It faces Essendon, a side which ranks ninth for total contested disposals but 17th in differential.
All statistics courtesy of Champion Data
