Both North Melbourne and Geelong possess 1-2 records heading into Round 4, making Sunday’s clash at Simonds Stadium a crucial one for the state of both sides’ seasons.
The Kangaroos have not won at the venue since 2007; a victory that was arguably the catalyst for Geelong’s incredible run of success in the following eight years.
Squads
North Melbourne
Backs L.McDonald 21 S.Thompson 16 M.Firrito 11
Half Backs S.Atley 18 R.Tarrant 25 S.Wright 19
Centreline R.Nahas 28 J.Ziebell 7 S.Gibson 43
Half Forwards B.Harvey 29 J.Waite 30 S.Higgins 4
Forwards L.Thomas 12 D.Petrie 20 B.Brown 50
Followers T.Goldstein 22 B.Cunnington 10 A.Swallow 9
Interchange R.Bastinac 3 M.Wood 32 J.Macmillan 34 K.Turner 40
Emergencies B.McKenzie 2 B.Jacobs 5 T.Dumont 14
In: J.Macmillan
Out: B. Jacobs
Update: Jamie Macmillan and Luke McDonald were withdrawn from the North squad on Saturday, with Trent Dumont and Ben Jacobs their replacements.
Geelong
Backs J.Bews 24 H.Taylor 7 C.Enright 44
Half Backs J.Kelly 9 J.Rivers 25 C.Guthrie 29
Centreline S.Motlop 32 J.Selwood 14 M.Duncan 22
Half Forwards D.Lang 11 T.Hawkins 26 J.Murdoch 21
Forwards C.Gregson 28 M.Clark 19 N.Cockatoo 5
Followers M.Blicavs 46 J.Caddy 23 S.Johnson 20
Interchange From G.Horlin-Smith 33 J.Kolodjashnij 8 B.Smedts 2 R.Stanley 1 M.Stokes 27 J.Thurlow 40 J.Walker 34
In: J.Rivers, T.Hawkins, G.Horlin-Smith
Out: J.Bartel (Knee), T.Lonergan (Concussion), Mathew Stokes
RELATED: Scouting Report - Geelong
The test of depth
North Melbourne had to face Port Adelaide without Nick Dal Santo and Daniel Wells, and its midfield was further weakened early in the game when Jack Ziebell was substituted with what turned out to be bruised lungs.
It allowed the likes of Ben Jacobs (30 disposals) and Luke McDonald (28 disposals) to have a more prominent role, with the added benefit of introducing more players to the midfield rotation - something that could pay off in the long run.
Meanwhile, Geelong lost both Jimmy Bartel and Matthew Stokes to injury during its Round 3 victory over Gold Coast. It will force the Cats to call on some of its depth from the VFL for Sunday afternoon.
With numerous players missing from each team’s best 22, the performance of each side’s so-called ‘bottom six’ could end up being the difference at Simonds Stadium.
Flexibility and versatility
The weather forecast for Geelong on Sunday calls for a 90 per cent chance of rain, increasing throughout the day.
If the match turns into a wet-weather contest, the main goal becomes to adapt to the conditions as quickly as possible, often throwing out the team’s pre-meditated plans along the way.
North had two wins in the rain last season, with one at the SCG particularly impressive for the way the side threw away its normal quick ball movement to something more suited for the day.
Forwards pushed high up the ground and turned the game into one of territory, inching it forward and being patient. Eventually the Swans' walls broke and the visitors piled on six final-quarter goals.
The likes of Mason Wood and Ben Brown are adept at ground level and can push their typical leading roles towards the middle of the ground if needed – indeed it was a regular sight for Wood to be picking up possessions on the wing against the Power.
Meanwhile the midfield core of Andrew Swallow and Ben Cunnington (depending on Ziebell’s availability) relish the wet – Cunnington notched the three Brownlow votes in the win against Sydney last season.
Heading down the highway
The majority of North Melbourne’s list has ample experience at Simonds Stadium, yet it has been almost all on the end of losses.
Five consecutive defeats at the ground have come by an average of almost eight goals, with the Cats kicking at least 111 points on four of those five occasions.
Most teams have suffered similar fate over the last few years, but very few have defeated Geelong in a sudden death final – an accomplishment North owns after 2014’s semi-final encounter at the MCG.
In theory, the victory should give the side great confidence when it heads into hostile territory on Sunday afternoon.
The road ahead
The loser of Sunday’s encounter will drop to 1-3 after four rounds, a precarious position made even tougher by each of their Round 5 matchups.
North will face the reigning premiers at Etihad Stadium, while Geelong has Richmond at the MCG in front of what will likely be a pro-Tigers crowd.
While both the Kangaroos and Cats would look at those games as entirely winnable, the pressure that would be on each side leading into the weekend would be immense. Very few sides have made the finals from 1-4 in recent memory.
Round 4 might be too early to declare as a must-win, but it’s dangerously close to that territory.
