44 points (11 wins, two losses) 124.18 per cent
The run home:
Rd 15: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 16: Geelong at the MCG
Rd 17: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 18: Greater Western Sydney at Skoda Stadium
Rd 19: St Kilda at the MCG
Rd 20: Sydney Swans at ANZ Stadium
Rd 21: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 23: Essendon at the MCG
Undefeated since April, the Magpies face their sternest test in the coming three weeks. Three blockbusters, all at the MCG, will test the Pies' reliance on greenhorns like Jamie Elliott, Caolan Mooney and Marley Williams. An away trip to face the Giants offers respite before a testing run into the finals that will challenge, rather than concern, the premiership favourites.
Predict how the 2012 season will play out using the official AFL ladder predictor
2. Sydney Swans
40 points (10 wins, three losses), 144.18 per cent
The run home:
Rd 15: Brisbane Lions at the SCG
Rd 16: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 17: St Kilda at the SCG
Rd 18: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Rd 19: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Collingwood at ANZ Stadium
Rd 21: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Hawthorn at the SCG
Rd 23: Geelong at Simonds Stadium
The Swans can entrench themselves in the top four with three highly winnable games in the next month. However, every game from round 19 onwards will pose problems. The form of midfield gun Kieren Jack and the exciting Lewis Jetta will give fans hope they can continue to defy the doubters. Adam Goodes remains the club's wildcard, as he slowly works his way back from a lengthy injury layoff.
3. West Coast
40 points (10 wins, three losses) 143.12 per cent
The run home:
Rd 15: North Melbourne at Blundstone Arena
Rd 16: Sydney Swans at Patersons Stadium
Rd 17: Adelaide Crows at AAMI Stadium
Rd 18: Brisbane Lions at Patersons Stadium
Rd 19: Fremantle at Patersons Stadium
Rd 20: Geelong at Patersons Stadium
Rd 21: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 22: Collingwood at Patersons Stadium
Rd 23: Hawthorn at the MCG
A top-four finish appears certain thanks to the Eagles' imperious form at home. After this week's journey to Hobart, the club's only remaining trips across the Nullarbor are to play Adelaide and Port, before a last-round appointment with Hawthorn that should be a mouth-watering curtain-raiser for the finals. The possible returns of Josh Kennedy and Mark Nicoski will provide a welcome boost.
4. Essendon
40 points (10 wins, three losses) 138.40 per cent
The run home:
Rd 15: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 16: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 17: Geelong at Etihad Stadium
Rd 18: Hawthorn at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 20: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 22: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 23: Collingwood at the MCG
With Brownlow contender Jobe Watson running riot and Michael Hurley in intimidating form in front of the sticks, the Bombers are enjoying their best season for the better part of a decade. On current form they should finish top four, although their run of challenging fixtures include games against five of the current top eight. Two remaining trips interstate are to come, with four games on home turf at Etihad Stadium and three closing blockbusters at the MCG.
5. Adelaide
40 points (10 wins, three losses) 119.28 per cent
The run home:
Rd 15: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 16: Greater Western Sydney at Skoda Stadium
Rd 17: West Coast at AAMI Stadium
Rd 18: Geelong at Simonds Stadium
Rd 19: Essendon at AAMI Stadium
Rd 20: Fremantle at AAMI Stadium
Rd 21: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 22: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 23: Gold Coast at AAMI Stadium
The Crows can pencil in wins over the next two weeks, with games against the depleted Power and the Giants to come. After that they face demanding examinations against the Eagles at home, the Cats in Geelong and the Bombers at home. Win some or all of those games and they should stamp themselves in the top four, as their last month should be a relative breeze. Midfield depth remains a real strength, while Taylor Walker and Kurt Tippett firing simultaneously spells trouble for any opposition.
6. Hawthorn
36 points (nine wins, four losses) 138.72 per cent
The run home:
Rd 15: Greater Western Sydney at the MCG
Rd 16: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 17: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 18: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 19: Geelong at the MCG
Rd 20: Port Adelaide at Aurora Stadium
Rd 21: Gold Coast at the MCG
Rd 22: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Rd 23: West Coast at the MCG
The Hawks have now won four straight and are hitting their straps at the right time of year. While the Dogs will beg to differ, their next two opponents should present few problems. After that the fixture becomes more difficult. Games against the Pies, Bombers and Cats shape as critical for their top-four hopes. Captain Luke Hodge will surely be available come September, while in the short term the club will also sweat on the fitness of star forward Lance Franklin, after he suffered a hamstring scare against the Blues.
7. Geelong
32 points (eight wins, five losses), 112.78 per cent
The run home:
Rd 15: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Rd 16: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 17: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 18: Adelaide at Simonds Stadium
Rd 19: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 20: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 21: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Sydney Swans at Simonds Stadium
Leigh Matthews is among the pundits to have declared Geelong's dynasty over. But the Cats continue to hang tough and remain firmly in flag calculations. A week recharging the batteries on the Gold Coast will set them up for a lethal five-game stretch against Collingwood, Essendon, Adelaide, Hawthorn and West Coast. Survive that and finish in the eight, and the Cats will be a scary proposition for opposition teams in the finals.
8. North Melbourne
28 points (seven wins, six losses), 105.24 per cent
The run home:
Rd 15: West Coast at Blundstone Arena
Rd 16: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 17: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 18: Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Collingwood at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Fremantle at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Greater Western Sydney at Skoda Stadium
The Roos will need to beat teams ahead of them to make the finals. Back-to-back wins over Adelaide and St Kilda make that a realistic possibility - something that was unthinkable after North's Franklin-led 115-point demolition by Hawthorn in round 10. The flying Eagles present a tough task on paper this week, although conditions in Tasmania are likely to be arctic, which can only help Brad Scott's team.
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9. St Kilda
24 points (six wins, seven losses), 116.36 per cent
The run home:
Rd 15: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 16: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 17: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Rd 18: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 20: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 21: Geelong at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Greater Western Sydney at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Lost the classic eight-point game against the Roos, who leapfrogged St Kilda into the top eight. The next four games could be pivotal. Win any less than three of those four, and the Saints can probably start making alternative plans for September. Games against Melbourne and GWS are likely wins in August. Geelong and Carlton will be more daunting.
10. Carlton
24 points (six wins, seven losses) 107.15 per cent
The run home:
Rd 15: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 16: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 17: Western Bulldogs at Eithad Stadium
Rd 18: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 19: Sydney Swans at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Brisbane Lions at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 22: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Rd 23: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Anointed premiership favourites after five wins in the opening six rounds, the Blues have fallen in a heap and the promise of top four is already a distant memory. Few will back the Blues to repeat round three's destruction of Collingwood this week. However, things improve thereafter, starting with a must-win clash against the Roos. Injuries to key players Marc Murphy, Jarrad Waite, Jeremy Laidler, Lachie Henderson and now Michael Jamison are the major concern as the blowtorch becomes more concentrated on coach Brett Ratten.
11. Richmond
24 points (six wins, seven losses) 106.23 per cent
The run home:
Rd 15: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 16: Gold Coast at Cazaly's Stadium (Cairns)
Rd 17: North Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 18: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 19: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 20: Western Bulldogs at the MCG
Rd 21: Fremantle at Patersons Stadium
Rd 22: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 23: Port Adelaide at the MCG
The Tigers' best is very good, but they need to find a way to grind out victories. Fortunately, their run home offers ample opportunity. Essendon is the only top-six side the Tigers confront between now and September. Carlton and Fremantle (away) are their next toughest assignments, while the Suns, Lions, Power and Demons present chances for both wins and potentially vital percentage boosts.
12. Brisbane Lions
24 points (six wins, seven losses), 96.15 per cent
The run home:
Rd 15: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Rd 16: St Kilda at the Gabba
Rd 17: Gold Coast at the Gabba
Rd 18: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 19: Richmond at the Gabba
Rd 20: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Adelaide at the Gabba
Rd 22: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 23: Western Bulldogs at the Gabba
The Lions have strung together consecutive thumpings of the Dogs and the Demons and are now playing some good football. Coach Michael Voss is not ruling out finals, and the Lions have a friendly fixture. Win all their home matches and pinch an away game against Port, Carlton, West Coast or the Swans and an unlikely tilt at September could yet become reality.
13. Fremantle
24 points (six wins, seven losses) 90.79 per cent
The run home:
Rd 15: Western Bulldogs at Patersons Stadium
Rd 16: Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 17: Greater Western Sydney at Patersons Stadium
Rd 18: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 19: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 20: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 21: Richmond at Patersons Stadium
Rd 22: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Melbourne at Patersons Stadium
The schedule is favourable for Freo, who face the Dogs, the Demons, the Giants and the Power in games they should win. Ross Lyon's men have given competitive displays in their past couple of games against likely top-four finishers in Essendon and Collingwood. That will build confidence, but much will hinge on the possible returns from injury of key players Nat Fyfe, Aaron Sandilands, Stephen Hill and Zac Dawson.
14. Western Bulldogs
20 points (five wins, eight losses) 79.38 per cent
The run home:
Rd 15: Fremantle at Patersons Stadium
Rd 16: Hawthorn at Etihad Stadium
Rd 17: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 18: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 21: Sydney Swans at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Geelong at Simonds Stadium
Rd 23: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
There's little good news for the Bulldogs, whose current form is among the competition's worst. A hamstring injury suffered in Saturday's shellacking by Essendon could sideline one of their most creative players in Robert Murphy, experienced forward Daniel Giansiracusa is also missing and Adam Cooney looks a shadow of his former self. With one of the toughest runs home going around, it's hard to see how and where they will pick up anything more than a couple more wins.
15. Port Adelaide
16 points (four wins, nine losses) 84.87
The run home:
Rd 15: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 16: Essendon at AAMI Stadium
Rd 17: Melbourne at TIO Stadium
Rd 18: Fremantle at AAMI Stadium
Rd 19: Greater Western Sydney at Skoda Stadium
Rd 20: Hawthorn at Aurora Stadium
Rd 21: West Coast at AAMI Stadium
Rd 22: Brisbane Lions at AAMI Stadium
Rd 23: Richmond at the MCG
The Power retain a mathematical chance of playing finals, but no more. The absences of Jay Schulz, Hamish Hartlett and Travis Boak for an extended period of time are too tough to cover. However, Port fought hard in grim conditions in Geelong on Sunday and they will loom as a potential banana skin for a handful of top-eight contenders. Adelaide is rarely given an easy ride in the Showdown, while the Bombers are unlikely to relish their trip to AAMI Stadium in a couple of weeks.
