With one round remaining, every single position in the top eight is still feasibly up for grabs.

Even Fremantle in 13th spot is still a mathematical possibility to make the eight, and the permutations are nearly endless.

How's the race to the finals shaping up?

Hawthorn, Port Adelaide, Greater Western Sydney, West Coast and the Western Bulldogs have not been considered.


1. Melbourne

32 points (eight wins, one loss), 260.4 per cent
The Demons are guaranteed a top-two finish and hosting rights for a qualifying final and preliminary final, should they win through. A win over Brisbane would all but secure the minor premiership and possible Grand Final hosting rights, with a watch needed on the percentage of Adelaide (facing lowly West Coast). A loss to the Lions and a Crows win would see a second-place finish.

The run home
R10: Brisbane @ Brighton Homes Arena

2. Adelaide

32 points (eight wins, one loss), 196.3 per cent
The Crows are locked into the top-two. A win over West Coast, coupled with a Melbourne win over Brisbane would see percentage come into play for top spot and all that entails. A win and a Melbourne loss would see the Crows finish first. An upset loss would see Adelaide finish second.

The run home
R10: West Coast @ Mineral Resources Park

3. North Melbourne

24 points (six wins, three losses), 207.4 per cent
The Kangaroos are highly likely to defeat Western Bulldogs, meaning third spot is the Roos' for the taking. A loss would see the Roos drop to fourth (if one of Brisbane or Essendon win) or fifth (if both sides win).

The run home
R10: Western Bulldogs @ VU Whitten Oval


4. Brisbane

24 points (six wins, three losses), 145.3 per cent
The shock loss to St Kilda has thrown the Lions' top-four hopes upside down. The absolute worst-case scenario (thumping loss to Melbourne, while Geelong, Sydney and St Kilda all win), could even see Brisbane miss the eight, although that's incredibly unlikely. Victory over the Dees will be enough to secure fourth if Gold Coast beats Essendon, but will come down to percentage if the Bombers triumph.

The run home
R10: Melbourne @ Brighton Homes Arena

5. Essendon

24 points (six wins, three losses), 112.4 per cent
Top-four hopes are back on the agenda for the Bombers, despite last week's loss to West Coast, after St Kilda saw off Brisbane. Like most sides, the Bombers are still able to miss the eight entirely if they lose to Gold Coast and Geelong, Sydney and St Kilda all win (comes down to percentage). A win over the Suns and a Brisbane win would see fourth decided by percentage. If the Bombers win and the Lions lose, then fourth spot will be Essendon's.

The run home
R10: Gold Coast @ Great Barrier Reef Arena

6. Gold Coast

22 points (five wins, three losses, one draw), 115.6 per cent
The Suns have a two-point buffer which should see them safely through to the finals, except if they lose to Essendon, while three of Geelong, Sydney, St Kilda and Collingwood win. Victory over the Bombers could push Gold Coast as high as fourth, if Brisbane also loses to Melbourne. If both Queensland sides win, the Suns will finish fifth.

The run home
R10: Essendon @ Great Barrier Reef Arena


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7. Geelong

20 points (five wins, four losses), 130.5 per cent
The Cats' ceiling (with a win over Hawthorn) is sixth place, regardless if Gold Coast or Essendon emerge as victors. A healthy percentage means it's unlikely that Sydney, St Kilda or Collingwood will leapfrog Geelong, if the Cats win. An upset loss will spell trouble, if two of those three teams secure wins.

The run home
R10: Hawthorn @ GMHBA Stadium

8. Sydney

20 points (five wins, four losses), 101.9 per cent
The Swans have come from the clouds to be firmly in finals contention, despite being winless last season. Will definitely need to defeat Fremantle in the west to remain in the mix, given their percentage. Could finish as high as sixth (if Gold Coast and Geelong lose), or miss the eight entirely, even with four points under their belt, if St Kilda or Collingwood also win and overhaul percentage.

The run home
R10: Fremantle @ Fremantle Oval

9. St Kilda

20 points (five wins, four losses), 97.1 per cent
A Gold Coast loss, coupled with a St Kilda win over Carlton, will open the door nicely for the Saints to play their first AFLW finals series. Things get a bit trickier when it comes to the teams around them. If all four sides currently on 20 points (Geelong, Sydney, St Kilda and Collingwood) win or all four lose, it comes down to percentage. A Saints win, and at least two of those three other sides losing, should see the Saints qualify on points.

The run home
R10: Carlton @ Ikon Park


10. Collingwood

20 points (five wins, four losses), 95 per cent
Given the Pies' current spot and percentage, they have to defeat Richmond, minimum. They could finish as high as sixth, if Geelong, Sydney and the Saints all slip up. If all four clubs win, the Pies will want to beat up on the wounded Tigers to overhaul that percentage gap. If all four clubs lose, Collingwood is unlikely to make it.

The run home
R10: Richmond @ Victoria Park

11. Carlton

16 points (four wins, five losses), 89.6 per cent
It's still theoretically possible for Carlton to make the eight. The Blues' first job is to beat St Kilda, then hope Geelong, Sydney and Collingwood all lose by enough that the Blues can scrape through on percentage.

The run home
R10: St Kilda @ Ikon Park

12. Richmond

16 points (four wins, five losses), 86.2 per cent
The Tigers are limping to the line and are all but done. They’ll need to beat Collingwood, hope Carlton defeats St Kilda, and that Sydney and Geelong lose by enough that the Tigers can overhaul them on percentage.

The run home
R10: Collingwood @ Victoria Park

13. Fremantle

16 points (four wins, five losses), 74.9 per cent
Fremantle is in a similarly dire strait to Richmond and Carlton. The Dockers need to beat Sydney, Richmond needs to defeat Collingwood, Carlton must take out St Kilda, and both Geelong and Sydney have to lose for the Dockers to have a chance to make it. Plus, they need to win by a huge margin to address the serious percentage gap.

The run home
R10: Sydney @ Fremantle Oval


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