FIRST, the good news. North Melbourne's finals destiny remains in its own hands. With five games to play, the Kangaroos are half a game outside the top eight in 10th place.

After round 18, North has eight wins and another four would ensure it returns to the finals for the first time since 2008. But the race for the top eight's final three spots is so tight, three wins may be enough.

Not only can North shape its own fortunes, it can also put a dent in the hopes of two its top-eight challengers. The Kangaroos play the teams now sitting seventh and eighth on the ladder, Fremantle and St Kilda, with both clashes effectively 'eight-point games'. 

Now, the bad news. Four of North's final five opponents were in the top eight at the end of round 18 - Carlton, Hawthorn, Freo and the Saints - with the Blues and Hawks in the top four.

And the only game in which the Kangaroos will play a team lower than them on the ladder will be in round 24 against 13th-placed Richmond.

It's a tough draw. But it has an upside. If North can notch enough wins against these teams to make the finals, it will thoroughly deserve its spot in the eight.

And North coach Brad Scott has said all season the last thing he wants is for his team to sneak into the finals and be uncompetitive.

So, let's look at exactly where the Kangaroos sit and the challenges that lie ahead.

THE CHALLENGERS

Collingwood and Geelong are already assured of finals spots, and Hawthorn, Carlton and West Coast have as good as booked theirs.

North is one of seven teams beneath them battling for the final three spots in the eight.

The others, in ladder order, are the Sydney Swans (38 premiership points), Fremantle (36), St Kilda (34), Essendon (34), North (32), Melbourne (30) and the Western Bulldogs. Bear in mind, Freo, the Saints and Demons have played 16 games, so they have a game in hand on the other four clubs.

These teams' draws and prospects were examined on afl.com.au on Monday, but it's worth noting seventh-placed Freo's percentage is marginally less than North's (98.76 to 100.80) and their draw is loaded with games against three top-four teams (Hawthorn, Carlton and Collingwood; admittedly  all three at Patersons Stadium) and three Etihad Stadium games against St Kilda, North and the Bulldogs.

It's not inconceivable that Fremantle could win just two of those games.

The Saints face two top-four teams (Collingwood and Carlton), another two top-eight teams (Fremantle and the Sydney Swans) and North in their remaining six games. The only game they can pencil in as a win is against Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium.

Ninth-placed Essendon also has tough run, with clashes against the top-of-table Magpies, fifth-placed West Coast and the Swans. The Bombers should beat Port Adelaide but they also play the Bulldogs, who will not the pushovers they were in round one. 

NORTH'S RUN HOME 

North's draw is Carlton (Etihad Stadium), Hawthorn (Aurora Stadium), Bye, Fremantle (Etihad Stadium), St Kilda (Etihad Stadium), Richmond (Etihad Stadium).

As we've noted, the Kangaroos' road to the finals is lined with potholes.

One thing in their favour is they will play four of their remaining five games at their home ground, Etihad Stadium. North is more comfortable there than any other ground.

Another obstacle the Kangaroos will have to negotiate is their second bye for the year, which falls in round 21. The bye was something to be feared in the first 13 rounds of the season, with teams coming off the week's rest recording just four wins from 18 attempts - and two of those wins against opponents who were also coming off a bye.

Since then, the bye's horns seem to have disappeared. Of the seven teams coming off a bye since round 14, all bar one (Adelaide in round 17) have won their next game.

But more pressing for Scott and his men are the on-field challenges they face. Let's take them one game at a time. 

Carlton, round 19, Etihad Stadium

Recent record: North has won seven of its past eight games against Carlton, a run that dates back to round one, 2005. Admittedly, this period included the 2005-07 stretch that ranks as one of the bleakest in the Blues' proud history.

However, even since Carlton started its rise up the ladder in 2008, North has won two of their three encounters. Its loss came in Adam Simpson's final game, in round 18, 2009, when the Kangaroos led at half-time, but went down by 10 points despite having five more scoring shots.

Last time: As it will this year, North played its only Friday night game last year against the Blues, in round 12 at Etihad Stadium. The Kangaroos rose to the occasion, too, turning on one of their best performances of 2010, suffocating the Blues with intense defensive pressure to win by 29 points. Lindsay Thomas, who was dropped to the VFL two rounds ago, kicked 7.5 that night.

Key match-ups: Although Jarrad Waite is out injured, the Blues' forward line is still extremely dangerous with speedy smalls Eddie Betts and Jeff Garlett. Both have kicked 37 goals this year and North will look to keep them quiet. Brady Rawlings should take one of the duo, Scott McMahon may take the other.

Limiting the influence of Carlton's midfield will obviously be another massive challenge for North. After North's win against the Brisbane Lions last Sunday, Brad Scott noted Carlton is the No. 1 team for clearances and boasts the best player in the competition, in new dad Chris Judd, and the form player of 2011, Marc Murphy. North is likely to send a run-with player, possibly Levi Greenwood, to one of the duo. But Scott could be tempted to send his own star midfielder, Daniel Wells, to Judd, to give the two-time Brownlow medallist something to worry about when North's got the ball.

One area where North could look to exploit the Blues is in defence. With Michael Jamison out injured, the Blues have been forced to draft forward Lachie Henderson into their back six to stand the opposition's best power forward. Although Henderson has been solid in his new role, he will have his hands full with in-form North vice-captain Drew Petrie, who is third in the AFL in 2011 for contested marks.

Hawthorn, round 20, Aurora Stadium

Recent record: North has a good record against the Hawks in recent years. Since Hawthorn emerged as one of the competition's best teams in 2007, North has split their encounters 4-4.

Notably, the Kangaroos beat the Hawks in the 2007 second semi-final and even notched a win over them in their premiership year, in round 13, 2008.

North also has a solid record at Aurora Stadium. It has played the Hawks there four times and, again, has split the victories, 2-2.

Last time: North led narrowly for most of the game against the Hawks in round five, 2010, at Aurora Stadium, and eventually prevailed by 12 points. Lance Franklin kicked five goals for the Hawks, but three-goal contributions from Daniel Wells and David Hale were telling for the Kangaroos.

Key match-ups: Lance Franklin has long been a thorn in the Kangaroos' side. In his past seven games against North, Franklin has kicked three bags of five goals, averaged more than four goals a game and never kicked fewer than three. Given Franklin's freakish mix of athleticism and endurance, North will probably rotate a number of key defenders on him, with Robbie Tarrant, Cameron Pedersen and Lachie Hansen all candidates to go to him.

Alastair Clarkson has tinkered with the Hawks' game plan this season and now has them playing a precise short-kicking style, with attacks launched from half-back by pin-point kicks such as Brent Guerra, Matt Suckling and Grant Birchall. North might assign a defensive forward to one of these Hawk defenders, with Scott McMahon someone who has played that role successfully before.

Like Carlton, Hawthorn's key defensive stocks have been depleted by injury, with Stephen Gilham and Ben Stratton both ruled out for the season. Which means Petrie is likely to play on the undersized Josh Gibson or the inexperienced Jordan Lisle.

Fremantle, round 22, Etihad Stadium (night)

Recent record: Since 2006, neither North nor Fremantle has been able to established sustained dominance over the other. The teams have played seven games in that time - five have been at Patersons Stadium - with Freo holding a 4-3 edge. However, neither team has notched consecutive wins in that period.

Significantly, North has lost to Fremantle outside Western Australia just once, by one point in round 19, 2003, at the MCG.

At Etihad Stadium, the Kangaroos have won all three of their games against Freo, including their 54-point victory in round 19 last season.

Last time: North was extremely competitive against Fremantle when they clashed in round four this season at Patersons Stadium. Ultimately, however, North made too many crucial skill errors and lost by 29 points. Hayden Ballantyne kicked four goals for Freo, while Andrew Swallow had 31 possessions for the Kangaroos.

Key match-ups: Three-time All-Australian ruckman Aaron Sandilands has endured an injury-plagued season to date, but is expected to return to Fremantle's team soon. If fit, his clash with Todd Goldstein could decide which team wins the midfield battle. Of course, Hamish McIntosh could have returned to North's side by then, which would allow the Kangaroos to double-team Sandilands.

Any side facing Freo spends a good deal of their pre-game planning on Matthew Pavlich. The Fremantle captain's ability to dominate in the middle and up forward often forces a team to rotate different opponents on him depending on where he's playing. Again, Tarrant, Hansen and Pedersen are the main candidates to stand him when he plays forward, while Michael Firrito has the strength and stamina required to run with him on the ball.

Small forward Ballantyne is a barometer for Freo on its forward line, where his speed and elusiveness may force North to send Brady Rawlings to mind him. But Scott may again put Rawlings on young playmaker Stephen Hill. In round 19, 2010, Rawlings racked up 39 possessions while keeping Hill to seven. 

St Kilda, round 23, Etihad Stadium (night)

Recent record: St Kilda has been one of North's bogey teams in recent times. Since round 16, 2003, North has won three of their 13 games against the Saints, including just one of the past six.

Ironically, St Kilda was North's most recent top-four victim. The Kangaroos beat the Saints by five points in round 21, 2009, when they were one of only three teams to beat the Saints that season.

But in 2010 the Saints handed North two humbling losses, by 104 points in round two and 52 points in round 20.

Last time: North's nine-point loss to St Kilda in round 15 this season was one of its most disappointing of the year. The Saints set up the win with a nine-minute burst just before half-time, piling on five consecutive goals to take a 20-point lead in the major break. In a thrilling final term, the Kangaroos did everything but win. They held the Saints scoreless and had 16 inside 50s to nine, but ultimately shot themselves in the foot in front of goal, kicking 1.4 and two out of bounds on the full.

Key match-ups: Brendon Goddard may have had a slow start to the 2011 season but he was one of the most dominant players on the ground against North in round 15. His 28-disposal performance was nothing out of the ordinary for him against the Kangaroos. In his past four games against them, he has averaged 31 possessions.

The problem for North is that Goddard is just one of a number of Saints it could tag, with Nick Dal Santo and Leigh Montagna others that demand attention. However, it may be that Greenwood or even Rawlings is sent to mind Goddard on this occasion.

St Kilda coach Ross Lyon usually deploys one or both of Clinton Jones and Sean Dempster to shut down an opposition playmaker. We expect that will continue against North. Daniel Wells' sublime 2011 form means he will likely have some company in this game, while Brent Harvey and Andrew Swallow could also be tagged.

Pedersen is likely to be given first crack at Saints skipper Nick Riewoldt after keeping him goalless in the second half of the round 15 game. It will be a massive task. Riewoldt has averaged 4.6 goals in his past five games against North, including two seven-goal hauls in 2010.

Sam Fisher's ability to zone off his opponent and double-team Petrie was one of the keys to the Saints' round 15 win. Little doubt, Brad Scott will instruct his team not to kick long to Petrie too often, and to go through Fisher's opponent whenever possible.

Richmond, round 24, Etihad Stadium (twilight)

Recent record: North has won seven of its past 11 games against Richmond, but has just one win and a draw from their four most recent matches.

The Tigers have also won the teams' past two games at Etihad Stadium.

Last time: North led by 13 points at three-quarter time in round five this year, but were overrun by the Tigers in the final quarter and lost by nine points. The Kangaroos were left rueing inaccurate kicking after they finished with six more scoring shots than the Tigers. Jack Riewoldt (five goals) and Dustin Martin (33 possessions and four goals) starred for Richmond, while Petrie kicked six goals for North and Swallow had 32 possessions.

Key match-ups: The Tigers have had two major holes in their line-up this season - in the ruck and key defence - and North will try to exploit both.

In the ruck, Goldstein should prove a handful for Angus Graham and/or Andrew Browne. North's dominance at stoppages should only be magnified if McIntosh plays.

Similarly, Petrie's rare form in the air should stretch Richmond's defence, with Alex Rance or Luke McGuane his most likely opponents.

Tiger spearhead Riewoldt's form has dropped off recently amid speculation he is carrying an injury. He kicked 36 goals in his first 10 games this year (including the round two match against St Kilda, when he was subbed out after leaving the ground midway through the first quarter), but has kicked just 14 in his past seven. However, North will still be extremely wary of him. Nathan Grima kept him to three goals in round 16 last season and, if selected, could be given the role again. Otherwise Tarrant and Pedersen again come into the equation.

North will also be mindful of the need to pay Martin close attention, both in the midfield and on the forward line. Although he may not be tagged in the midfield, when he drifts forward Firrito looms as his best match-up.

THE FINAL WORD

So that's the challenge North faces. More importantly, how will it respond to it?

Given Richmond has lost seven of its past eight games, its young list seems to be feeling the pinch of a long season. So North will deservedly start a strong favourite in that game.

North's strong record against Fremantle in Victoria and, particularly, at Etihad Stadium means they are a good chance to win their round 22 game.

Likewise, North went so close to beating St Kilda in round 15 - and would have learned some invaluable lessons from that loss - that it will fancy its chances in their round 23 match. At his post-match press conference after round 15, Scott said North could not wait to take on St Kilda again and he's unlikely to be perturbed by the fact the Saints have now won seven of their past nine matches.

For North to be any chance of making the eight, we think it has to win these three matches. A tough assignment? Undoubtedly. But an achievable one? We think so.

But to make sure of a finals berth, North will have to knock off Carlton or Hawthorn.

The Kangaroos' recent record against top-four teams has been ordinary to say the least. But their records against the Blues and the Hawks have been solid. And, although Carlton and Hawthorn are playing better football this year than they did in 2009-10, North will be take confidence from knowing it beat both the last time they played.

If North ultimately falls short of the final eight, it won't be by much. And it'll be left rueing its four losses by fewer than 10 points this season.

The views in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the club