WHERE AND WHEN: Skoda Stadium, Saturday September 1, 4.40pm
LAST TIME: North Melbourne 28.15 (183) d Greater Western Sydney 8.6 (54) at Blundstone Arena
Greater Western Sydney brings the curtain down on its inaugural AFL season when it hosts North Melbourne at Skoda Stadium. There have been some highs, emphasised by wins over Gold Coast and Port Adelaide, and there have been some expected heavy losses. One of those came in a 129-point loss to the Kangaroos back in round two. North will be hoping for a similar result this time around as they jostle for final ladder positions.
THE FOUR POINTS
GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY
1. Can the Giants lift themselves up for one final challenge at the end of an arduous first campaign? In many respects GWS has been commendable for its approach to its debut season, considering how many young players dominate its list. They have attacked every game with relish, but must also be surely looking forward to a rest at the conclusion of this game.
2. Toby Greene is putting the finishing touches on a remarkable rookie season. The 18-year-old has averaged 27.8 possessions in his 18 games to date, good enough for ninth in the competition. While he is unfortunately ineligible for the NAB AFL Rising Star award due to suspension, he will be keen to finish off a tremendous first year in style on Saturday.
3. The Giants have made it clear they will be reviewing their list closely at season's end as they formulate their strategy to build on their two wins in 2012. They boast tremendous young talent, but they won't be able to keep all of it, so all selected on Saturday will want to sign off on a positive note. The performance of their veterans, and their plans going forward, is also of some significance.
4. Not surprisingly, GWS has struggled in many statistical categories this season. But one area the Giants have proven competitive is handballs, averaging 151 per game, which is ninth in the AFL. Through chains of handballs, they have proven adept at putting together some scintillating passages of play. But this week, they face the handball masters, who sit first with 170 per outing. There could be some fast and furious action through the middle at Skoda Stadium.
NORTH MELBOURNE
1. North has plenty of incentive to record a percentage-boosting win against GWS. The eighth-placed Roos are just 0.78 of a percentage point behind seventh-placed Fremantle and, given Freo will start strong favourites against Melbourne at Patersons Stadium, percentage is likely to determine their final positions. Among this round's many finals permutations, if North finishes eighth and West Coast loses to Hawthorn and slides from fourth to fifth, the Roos would meet the Eagles at Patersons Stadium in an elimination final. But if North can leapfrog Freo into seventh, it will almost certainly play Geelong at the MCG or Etihad Stadium.
2. North is ranked third in the competition in uncontested possessions, having averaged 25.4 a game more than their opponents in 2012. Last week's defeat against Fremantle was just the sixth time this season the Roos have lost that count (204-221), as Freo held them to their third-lowest score of the season (79 points). However, North recorded its biggest uncontested possession differential this season (+147) against GWS in round two.
3. Drew Petrie was held goalless for just the fourth time this season against Fremantle last Sunday, but remains a chance to win the Coleman Medal. The Roos co-vice-captain has kicked an accurate 55.15 this season to sit equal fourth on the AFL goalkicking table, behind injured Fremantle skipper Matthew Pavlich (60 goals), Richmond's Jack Riewoldt (59) and Geelong's Tom Hawkins (58). Petrie kicked two goals in North's 129-point win over GWS in round two as he started 2012 slowly, but the 29-year-old has hit career-best form in the second half of the season.
4. North's three-pronged forward line of Petrie, Robbie Tarrant and Lachlan Hansen has been lauded as one of the reasons for the Roos' recent revival, but small forward Lindsay Thomas has also enjoyed an excellent season. Thomas has kicked a career-high 36 goals in 2012 from just 17 games, bettering his previous season best of 32 in 2008. More significantly, Thomas seems to have rid himself of the goalkicking yips that gripped him as he kicked 21.36 last season. This year, Thomas has kicked 36.17.
AFL.com.au prediction: North Melbourne by 84 points
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
