The authors of the AFL's latest injury report have warned that it will take more than a reduction in interchanges to reduce the League's high rate of injuries.
The report, written by Dr Hugh Seward and Associate Professor John Orchard, shows there was a significant increase in the number of injuries at the same time that rotations rose during the late 2000s.
Even after the introduction of the sub rule at the start of 2011, the injury rate has remained at a historically high level.
Seward and Orchard are not expecting the situation to change in the wake of interchanges being capped at 120.
"At the moment, we're just observing it, monitoring it and trying to provide as much advice as we can, but it's not a simple one thing causes the other," Seward said at the launch of the injury report on Tuesday.
Even if the interchange cap is lowered to 80, as has been widely mooted, Seward and Orchard doubt such a change will have a dramatic impact on the number of injuries.
"I would be more confident about an overall drop in injury prevalence if there were dramatic reductions in interchange, but that's obviously not going to happen," Orchard said.
"I would think if we were back in an era of 40 interchanges a team, which we're obviously a long, long way from, that you probably could be more confident about expecting that injuries would drop.
"But I'm not as confident about injuries dropping if you went from 120 to 100 or 90.
"And it would take a long time to get back to the 30 and 40 interchanges a game that we had 10 years ago."
AFL football operations boss Mark Evans, who was sitting beside Orchard, joked that "18 club coaches have just fallen off their chair at the prospect of 30 interchanges."
To which Orchard responded, "Obviously, it's not going to happen. But that's the environment we were in 10 years ago.
"In practical terms, we would think that the debate about lowering interchanges wouldn't really be based on solid predictions on what's going to happen to injuries."
Evans, whose position on the laws committee means he will play key role in whether the interchange cap is reduced to 80, agreed with that sentiment.
"'d be surprised whether injury data will direct us too much about what we do with the interchange," he said.
Orchard and Seward have found that rising injury rates is a problem around the globe.
They believe that better management of players, rather than substantial rule changes, are the best hope of lowering the numbers of injuries occurring in the AFL.
"The big question is: Is it just that there's this natural evolution in bigger, stronger, faster (athletes) as the years go on, and that injuries will inevitably get worse in any given sport," Orchard said.
"Because around the world it's hard to point out a professional sport that's not getting more injuries today than it was 10 years ago."
